Strong recovery for Apple iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max expected in January
DSCC’s David Naranjo evaluated the impact on the iPhone 14 Pro models in light of the turmoil of the CCP’s “Zero COVID” lockdowns that took place at the Foxconn facility in Zhengzhou, China – “iPhone City” – in October – November. During that time, Apple issued a warning that the iPhone 14 Pro models would be temporarily affected. Naranjo expects a strong recovery for Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max in January.
iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, iPhone 14 Pro, iPhone 14 Pro Max
David Naranjo for DSCC:
In the latest survey of our supply chain sources for 2022, we found that panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Pro model were reduced by 3%, while the iPhone 14 Pro Max was reduced by 2%. This amounts to a total impact of approximately 1.5 million panels for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max through December 2022. The estimates do not show any panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Plus in December. Since the Foxconn facility primarily produced Pro models, the reduction for the iPhone 14 Plus is likely a demand issue versus the impact of the Foxconn facility’s turbulence.
iPhone 14 panel shipments are expected to reach 101 million panels through December, representing a 10% Y/Y increase compared to iPhone 13 panel shipments in 2021. Due to the impact on the iPhone 14 Pro models, the iPhone 14 panel shipments had a share of 24%, from 23% in previous estimates, iPhone 14 Plus with 13%, iPhone 14 Pro with 26% against 27% in previous estimates and the iPhone 14 Pro Max with 36% against 37% in previous estimates. In 2021, the iPhone 13 had a share of 41%, followed by the iPhone 13 Pro Max with 28% and the iPhone 13 Pro with 23%.
Comparing panel supplier share between the 2022 iPhone 14 models and 2021 iPhone 13 models, SDC is expected to have a 74% share, down from 76%, followed by LGD with 16%, down from 21% and BOE with 9%, up from 3%.
What is more telling is what is expected to happen in January 2023. The iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have the largest share of panel shipments in January. 15M panel shipments are expected to ship with the Pro models accounting for 80% of shipments with the iPhone 14 Pro Max accounting for 51% of that total. In December, China relaxed its COVID-19 policy and Foxconn stabilized the situation in the Zhengzhou China facility. The increased focus on the Pro models is a partial recovery from what happened in October and demand issues. From all accounts, consumers are willing to pay the additional $200 for the 6.7” iPhone 14 Pro versus the 6.7” iPhone 14 Plus.
The growth and share gains for the iPhone 14 series are even greater when January is included. When January is included and iPhone 13 panel shipments are compared to iPhone 14 panel shipments, panel shipments are expected to increase 14% year-over-year to 117 million panels.
MacDailyNews Takes: Good news for Apple’s iPhone is coming in early 2023.
These iPhone 14 Pro sales are merely delayed, not lost. Some may downgrade to iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus, but most buyers will simply wait for the supply to catch up amid strong demand. – MacDailyNews, November 16, 2022
Even before the iPhone 14 lineup was unveiled, we predicted high demand for the Pro models over previous years as Apple seemed determined to better differentiate the Pro over the base models.
Apple should have done this before, but it’s good to see some additional differentiation between entry-level and “Pro” iPhones, which will obviously shift more buyers to iPhone Pro models, which will increase Apple’s iPhone ASP. The expected removal of the inelegant kludge (notch) in favor of a more refined pill and hole punch design exclusive to the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will also help differentiate the Pro models from the non-Pro iPhones later this year , and move the mix to higher-end iPhones. – MacDailyNews, July 6, 2022
Apple iPhone mix is going to be easily the strongest ever. Don’t be surprised with reports that Apple has cut iPhone 14 orders, meaning iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus. The company is likely to increase iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max orders to reflect the strong mix, which bodes well, of course, for Apple’s iPhone average selling price (ASP). – MacDailyNews, September 14, 2022
China’s CCP threw a monkey wrench into the spokes, disrupting iPhone 14 Pro supply just in time for Christmas. But, also as we predicted, the “Zero COVID” nonsense has now passed in China, which bodes well for Apple’s fiscal 2023 second quarter ending in March.
There is no such thing as zero COVID, but this year is the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress, so the farce will continue until politics no longer dictates tilting at windmills. Then COVID will be allowed to sweep through China, as it already has across much of the world. – MacDailyNews, May 9, 2022
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