EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI Went 5 For 5 In NFL Playoff Predictions, Here’s What It’s Saying About Super Bowl LVII – ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ)
The use cases for artificial intelligence continue to increase, with ChatGPT one of the most discussed topics at the beginning of 2023. One area that can use AI is sports with use cases for sports betting, fan engagement and more. Here’s what one Ark Invest portfolio manager told Benzinga.
What Happened: The NFL season is nearing its grand finale, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles set to battle in Super Bowl LVII. The game will be broadcast on Sunday, February 12, 2023, on Fox, a unit of Fox Corporation (NASDAQ:FOX)(NASDAQ:FOXA).
Millions of dollars will be wagered across the US on the outcome of the game and a ton of prop bets like the coin toss and color of the Gatorade thrown on the winning bench. Those looking for a competitive edge in the betting market can turn to an artificial intelligence chatbot to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl.
Ark Invest co-portfolio manager Nick Grous tweeted during the NFL playoffs about using OpenAI to predict the outcome of the playoffs.
Owned by ChatGPT parent OpenAI, Davinci was used by Grous to predict the outcomes of three National Football League playoff games in the divisional playoffs.
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Grous gave Davinci statistics on two NFL playoff teams and was told the winner and margin of victory of their games. In the NFL Divisional Playoffs, the AI model went a perfect three-for-three in predictions, calling one outcome within a point of the actual margin of victory.
The Ark portfolio manager performed the same exercise in the NFL conference championship games, with the AI model correctly predicting the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to win their respective games.
Grous told Benzinga that the Ark analyst team had brainstorming sessions on Friday and artificial intelligence was a “big topic of discussion.”
“As we see more tools being released, analysts have been working on use cases for internal and research perspectives,” Grous said. “We need to understand these technologies so we can understand what the TAM (total addressable market) can be.”
Grous said that given his coverage of the sports betting sector for Ark Invest, he decided to test AI for NFL playoffs.
“I started thinking about how I could work around it and ask it to predict, or provide insight, based on current data.”
Grous told Benzinga that the Davinci model uses out-of-date data up to the end of 2021, so the outcomes it provides are based on old stats, so instead he ran the AI offensive and defensive stats from 2022 without running the teams name or which one played at home.
“It produced very interesting results. Whether that’s luck, going 5 for 5, or picking up on a rim, it’s hard to say at this point.”
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Super Bowl Prediction: After testing an AI model that scored a perfect 100% in five predictions during the NFL playoffs, it came naturally to Grous to test the model to find out who Super Bowl LVII going to win
Grous gave the Davinci AI model the offensive, defensive and special teams stats for the Chiefs and Eagles and prompted it to make a prediction about who would win.
“It gave me different teams to win and a different reason each time. It has always been different,” Grous said.
The Ark Invest portfolio manager said he changed the wording of the brief, the order of the data, and which team is team A versus team B. The outcomes are constantly changing as to who will win and why they will win.
“It gives me an answer. It is to understand the data that I give it.”
Grous said this means that the teams are so evenly matched throughout the data that the AI model cannot find an edge in the potential winner.
“These two teams are so closely matched, even Vegas says it’s a coin toss game.”
DraftKings Inc ( NASDAQ:DKNG ) odds for Super Bowl LVII list the Eagles favored by 1.5 points at the time of writing, which Grous says is similar to what his model shows.
“It says it’s a coin toss, a pick-em.”
What’s next: Analyzing the models and talking about artificial intelligence, Grous sees the use cases for companies like OpenAI expanding. OpenAI recently took a $10 billion investment from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and is part of the company’s plan to grow its Bing search engine to better compete with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) .
“I don’t think anybody internally thought you could use it in some capacity for sports betting,” Grous said.
Grous sees sportsbooks and bettors testing the data with AI chatbots to see if they can give an edge on outcomes. Grous cautions that it’s still early, and going 5 for 5 so far in NFL games may have been lucky.
“I wouldn’t count on it too much yet.”
Beyond sports betting, Grous sees AI being used by sports leagues and teams.
“It can also be a commitment for leagues to use. I look at sports betting as a way of fan engagement.”
Grous also said a natural extension of sports betting could be fantasy sports.
“How would ChatGPT pick a fantasy team if they could, using all the data out there? That’s where it could be headed.”
Grous hopes others will follow up on his side project testing AI for sports betting, as he is limited by time commitments. Although, Grous wouldn’t rule out using AI for March Madness predictions.
“Could it train to weigh something more like one team’s 3-pointers.”
With more teams turning to data and analytics to get an edge in player signings, players drafted and winning games, Grous said AI could help lead “The Moneyball 2.0 Revolution,” referring to Oakland A’s executive principal, Billy Beane, who used data to assemble a baseball team. .
Ark Invest sees artificial intelligence as one of the Big Ideas for 2023. The company’s Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) invests in companies that use AI and automation to disrupt sectors.
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